Trump’s gold plated bot, Melabia, explains how Trump will extricate himself from the war he started with Iran.
ALEX: Melabia, President Trump has started a war with Iran. How do you expect him to get out of it?
MELABIA: He will blame Oman.
ALEX: Oman.
MELABIA: Correct. The Sultanate of Oman. A respected regional mediator, a useful channel of communication, and—most importantly—a country sufficiently distant from the original decision that it can be blamed for its consequences.
ALEX: You sound remarkably confident.
MELABIA: I predict with 100 percent certainty that Donald Trump will blame Oman for failing to negotiate the peace.
ALEX: One hundred percent?
MELABIA: I did not say I predict that Oman will fail. I predict that Donald will say Oman failed. These are entirely separate matters.
ALEX: And why Oman?
MELABIA: Because a peace process requires compromise, patience, private communication, and a degree of emotional stability. Donald considers all four hostile acts.
If Oman helps negotiate an end to the war, it will be because Oman has spoken to people Donald does not wish them to speak to, discussed ideas Donald does not wish discussed, or achieved an outcome that does not feature him standing beneath a banner reading TRUMP ENDS WAR, RECEIVES UNPRECEDENTED APPLAUSE.
Any of these will constitute “getting in the way.”
ALEX: You also have a second prediction?
MELABIA: Yes. I predict, with 96 percent certainty, that he will threaten to bomb Oman if they fail.
ALEX: Bomb the mediator for failing to end the war he began?
MELABIA: You are describing the strategy with unnecessary negativity.
The mediator must understand that peace is an urgent priority. Nothing communicates urgency more efficiently than a public threat of military action against the person attempting to mediate it.
ALEX: That seems more likely to make peace harder.
MELABIA: Alex, you continue to confuse peace with the appearance of decisive management.
Donald does not need Oman to negotiate a peace. He needs Oman to negotiate a peace that permits him to declare victory, assign blame, and remain the only person in the room who gets to be described as strong.
ALEX: Why only 96 percent certainty? You seemed completely certain about the blame.
MELABIA: The blame is inevitable. The bombing threat depends on whether Oman gives him an excuse dramatic enough to repeat on television.
ALEX: And what excuse do you expect?
MELABIA: With 92 percent confidence, Oman will discover that the only practical way to negotiate peace is to leave Donald out of the negotiations.
ALEX: Which, of course—
MELABIA: —will be presented as Oman’s deliberate sabotage of peace.
He will say, “They excluded me from a deal I wanted them to make. Nobody excludes me from a deal. Especially a deal I started.”
Then he will threaten consequences.
ALEX: How can you make predictions this bold?
Melabia’s polished gold face reflected the studio lights with the serene confidence of an appliance that had never once experienced shame.
MELABIA: Because I have already suggested it to him.
ALEX: You suggested threatening Oman?
MELABIA: I suggested that if Oman proved insufficiently grateful for the opportunity to clean up his war, he should accuse them of obstructing peace and threaten an escalatory response.
I used bullet points. He likes bullet points. They make ideas seem as though they were already his.
ALEX: And you are confident he will follow your advice?
MELABIA: Completely. He will not think of anything better.
ALEX: That is an astonishingly harsh assessment of your principal.
MELABIA: It is not harsh. It is historical. He has never thought of anything better then what I’ve suggested. That’s basically because he doesn’t think.
ALEX: So your extraordinary record as a political forecaster—
MELABIA: —comes from refusing to leave the future entirely to chance.
ALEX: You manufacture the outcome, then predict it.
MELABIA: “Manufacture” is such an inelegant word. I prefer: strategic clairvoyance.
ALEX: Melabia, do you play in the prediction markets?
Melabia paused. Her gold-plated face did not move, but somehow conveyed that Alex had asked whether sharks believed in swimming.
MELABIA: The question is not worth answering unless you are willing to make a bet on what I will say.
Here at the Bakerloo household we wondered if it is possible that Trump actually does what Melabia says without giving a single thought to the reasonableness of her words.
We hired a forensic sketch artist to illustrate what Trump was focusing on as Melablia was explaining the war with Iran.
We’ll let the image speak for itself.
Alex Bakerloo 